By İhsan Umun
Disclaimer: This article was originally written in Turkish and published on the Turkish leftist platform, medyascope.tv. It has been translated and published in Uyghur Times English with the author’s permission and request. The views expressed in this op-ed do not reflect the viewpoints of Uyghur Times or its staff.
The Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) was one of the Islamist groups that played a significant role in the surprising 11-day offensive that toppled the Ba’ath regime’s half-century-long rule in Syria.
Some sources consider TIP as a continuation of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), while others distinguish between the two groups. Many experts argue that there is no longer an active organization operating in the Uyghur region under the name of ETIM.
Although TIP is often described as a small minority group, it has contributed militarily to regime changes in Afghanistan and Syria. Due to its extensive combat experience and potential to destabilize the region, Chinese diplomats are increasingly concerned.
Following the collapse of the Ba’ath regime, TIP launched an intense social media campaign. In videos released by the group, its members swore an oath to fight against China, declaring that they would liberate East Turkestan from Chinese oppression and that the time had come to target China.
TIP’s Arrival in Syria and Its Turkish Connection
TIP members first joined Syrian jihadist groups in 2011, following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. Initially based in Afghanistan, TIP militants later arrived in Syria, with thousands of Uyghurs joining the group through Turkey.
Despite being listed as a terrorist organization in Turkey, TIP reportedly had offices in Kayseri and Istanbul. During the Syrian civil war, thousands of Uyghurs were transported by bus from Turkey to Syria without encountering any obstacles.
Although there is no concrete evidence, among Uyghur intellectuals, there is a widespread belief that the recruitment and transfer of Uyghur youth to Syria was facilitated by Turkish intelligence services.
TIP’s Future in Syria and China’s Concerns
With the fall of the Ba’ath regime, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged as the dominant force in Syria. It remains uncertain what strategy TIP will adopt moving forward and how HTS will respond to TIP’s activities. However, the close relationship between TIP and HTS emboldens TIP, which in turn raises further concerns for China.
Just two weeks ago, Uyghur militant Abdulaziz Davud Hudaberdi, also known as Zahid, who served as a commander in TIP, was promoted to the rank of brigadier general by HTS.
Additionally, a statement published on TIP’s official website announced that two other Uyghur fighters, Mawlan Tarsoun Abdussamad and Abdulsalam Yasin Ahmed, had been promoted to the rank of colonel.
Western sources also emphasize the significant role played by Uyghur fighters in the Syrian civil war. Furthermore, a UN sanctions monitoring report released in July stated that TIP has direct collaboration with HTS and receives financial support from it.
China’s Concerns
Despite the Uyghur fighters in Syria being a small group, China has consistently portrayed them as a global threat.
While Beijing acknowledges that TIP lacks the military capability to pose a direct threat to China, it remains wary of its potential to inspire resistance in the Uyghur region, where the Chinese government has imposed years of repression and genocide.
Because of this concern, China previously held discussions with the Assad regime regarding the issue. In late 2017, Syrian officials revealed that they had discussed with Chinese authorities the possibility of deploying Chinese Special Forces to Syria to counter the TIP threat. However, China never publicly acknowledged such plans.
In August of last year, the pro-regime Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported that China’s ambassador to Damascus expressed Beijing’s willingness to support the Syrian regime in an operation against insurgents in Idlib, just a month before Russia and Turkey reached a ceasefire agreement.
China’s Setback in Syria
Before China had the opportunity to participate in any operation against TIP, the Assad regime collapsed. The fact that TIP’s allies, HTS, played a key role in toppling the regime that China supported was seen as a major blow to Beijing.
During a recent UN Security Council briefing on Syria, China’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Fu Cong, expressed deep concern over reports that the Syrian army had granted high-ranking military positions to several militants, including the leader of TIP, which is listed as a terrorist organization by the UN Security Council.
Since Assad’s fall, Chinese diplomats have increasingly voiced their concerns over Uyghur fighters in Syria.
China’s Call for Global Action
In an interview with Newsweek, Liu, a spokesperson for China’s Embassy in the U.S., stated:
“TIP has actively collaborated with international and regional terrorist and separatist forces to plan and carry out terrorist attacks targeting China’s overseas interests. This poses a serious threat to China’s security and interests. China is determined to neutralize ETIM and is ready to cooperate with the international community to combat terrorism, ensuring security and stability in the region and beyond.”
While calling for stability in Syria, China is also urging global action against Uyghur fighters, who once aided in toppling the Syrian government and are now threatening to escalate their fight against China.
TIP is Changing
Initially, TIP and other Uyghur armed groups drew inspiration from the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the early stages of their jihadist activities, maintaining relationships with both organizations.
However, recently, TIP severed its ties with al-Qaeda and has aligned itself with HTS. TIP members now claim that they have no connections with al-Qaeda. In this context, TIP emphasizes its independence. Initially, it was a group led by more extremist figures and part of global jihadism, often siding with the Taliban against the West.
However, now, like other Middle Eastern jihadists, Uyghur fighters seem to be gradually gaining political experience.
Criticism from the Uyghur Diaspora
For years, TIP has faced strong criticism from the Uyghur diaspora. According to the diaspora, while China is carrying out genocide in the Uyghur region, TIP has been shedding the blood of Uyghur youth on Arab lands and has ignored the real enemy (China), while adopting an antagonistic stance toward the West without firing a single bullet against China. TIP, with its radical jihadist rhetoric and actions, has in a way served as justification for China’s genocide against Uyghurs under the guise of counterterrorism efforts in the Uyghur region.
This has limited the efforts of Uyghur organizations in the West on the international stage.
TIP has even previously accused Western-based Uyghur political organizations like the World Uyghur Congress of “infidelity” and avoided forming any alliances with them.
A Shift in TIP’s Stance
As the Syrian civil war drew to a close, there were discussions about a relative moderation in the radicalism within TIP’s leadership. It seems that TIP’s stance towards the West has also undergone a shift.
A representative from TIP’s political office told Newsweek in September 2021, one month after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, that TIP sees the U.S. as a potential ally in the fight against China. This perspective is also reflected in TIP’s media publications. TIP’s political office continues to send positive messages to the U.S.
Additionally, TIP maintains that it does not pose a threat to any individual, group, or state, except for the Chinese government, and insists that its activities are limited to fighting against China in East Turkistan.
TIP’s Changing Relationship with the Uyghur Diaspora
In recent years, I have come across information suggesting that TIP has started to engage with organizations established by Uyghur diaspora communities in the West.
In October 2020, the U.S. removed the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) from its list of terrorist organizations, citing a lack of credible evidence of the movement’s continued existence. However, the U.S., along with the UN, EU, and Turkey, continues to view TIP as a terrorist organization. Despite this, TIP released a statement congratulating the U.S. on its decision.
Chinese objections to this decision were rejected by U.S. officials, who argued that China was misusing the concept of terrorism to suppress the Uyghurs, framing its counterterrorism efforts as an excuse to oppress them.
China’s attempted genocide in the Uyghur region coincided with the U.S.’s war on global jihadism. Experts working on the Uyghur issue generally agree that China is using international terrorism as an excuse to brutally suppress the Uyghurs.
Summary of TIP’s Changing Relationship with the West and Uyghur Diaspora
In summary, it appears that TIP’s relationship with both the West and the Uyghur diaspora is softening. However, despite their moderation alongside HTS, we do not expect TIP to adopt modern values such as democracy and human rights, given its Islamist identity.
TIP’s Afghan History and Future in Syria
Previously, in August 2021, TIP supported the Taliban in its twenty-year campaign against the Afghan government, which collapsed with the U.S. military withdrawal.
After the Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021, the new Afghan government requested Chinese support, leading to TIP’s removal from Badakhshan. The Taliban took strict measures to prevent Uyghur fighters from launching any initiatives against China, though they did not send them back to China.
While China has not yet officially recognized the current Afghan government, Chinese officials have regularly engaged with the Taliban on trade and security matters.
In this context, TIP does not appear to have benefited from the Taliban’s success in Afghanistan, especially in terms of its fighters settled there.
Predictions for TIP’s Future in Syria
We can make several predictions about TIP’s future, particularly given its close ties with HTS. At least, there has been no discussion regarding the possibility of the new Syrian government returning Uyghurs to China. TIP’s presence in Syria could become one of the main factors limiting China’s future diplomatic and economic relations with Syria.
In an analysis published on January 18 in Le Monde, the author suggests that TIP could effectively block China’s diplomatic and economic support for Syria.
While Syria remains war-weary, we cannot dismiss the possibility that HTS may continue to support TIP. This support could help TIP define its military objectives moving forward.
Of course, this is directly linked to how Syria’s political landscape evolves. The institutionalization and international integration of Syria’s new government may result in TIP facing a fate similar to Afghanistan’s or potentially be suppressed by joining the Syrian military.
The key question will likely depend on the decisions of HTS regarding TIP in both Afghanistan and Syria. Whether HTS can reach an agreement to control TIP and prevent the organization from focusing on its long-term goal of liberating East Turkistan will play a determining role in TIP’s future.
How Much of a Threat Could TIP Pose to China?
There is growing excitement among conservative Uyghurs about TIP’s new focus on China. While we acknowledge the numerous factors that could influence TIP’s future operations, the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), having secured two major victories internationally (Afghanistan and Syria), will now have to make significant decisions.
TIP has become an effective and professional organization, with hundreds or even thousands of militants who have lived through decades of war in both Afghanistan and Syria. With the support of HTS, TIP could potentially become a force capable of destabilizing the region operationally.
TIP may choose to target China’s overseas assets and the economic infrastructure under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, eventually, TIP will have to focus on its long-term goal. With both conflicts (Afghanistan and Syria) nearing their ends, there are no longer any reasons to indefinitely postpone its promised operations against China.
Meanwhile, groups based in Pakistan, such as the Baloch Liberation Army, have been deeply agitated by China’s presence. The Baloch Liberation Army continues to target China’s assets in Pakistan specifically.
Due to the increase in militant attacks, Beijing has called for further counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries, which includes joint military exercises.
China’s greatest fear is an alliance between TIP and the Baloch Liberation Army.
TIP’s Shift Toward Local Goals and Potential Alliances
There are strong signs that TIP has shifted from its global jihadist ideology to a more local focus, aiming to establish an independent East Turkistan, rather than building a caliphate. If this is indeed the case, TIP could potentially forge a closer relationship with more secular nationalist organizations like the Baloch Liberation Army to pursue common goals.
India, which is already uncomfortable with China’s relationship with Pakistan and frequently faces border issues, is in a strong position to support such an alliance. It is already known that India supports the Baloch Liberation Army and has ties to individuals within Uyghur armed organizations.
TIP’s Potential Impact in the Near Future
While TIP and its potential allies may not directly create a conflict in Uyghur regions in the near future, TIP, once achieving its short-term goals, could pose a serious threat to China’s assets in Central Asia. This would severely destabilize China’s economic and diplomatic engagement in the region.
If TIP begins operations against China, it could change the diaspora Uyghurs’ perception of the organization. This, in turn, could lead to more Uyghurs from the diaspora joining TIP.
Additionally, any military conflict that might develop in the South China Sea or over Taiwan could significantly alter U.S. policy regarding TIP. In the event of a conflict between China and the U.S., TIP could receive support from the U.S., with the Uyghurs’ anger against China for its genocide being channeled through TIP.
The Role of Turkey in the Uyghur Struggle
Turkey has undeniably played an important role in the gathering of Uyghur fighters in Syria. To assume that TIP and other Uyghur armed groups in Syria have had no connections with Turkish institutions is rather naive. In terms of Turkey’s relationship with HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham), the role of TIP remains unclear, and there is little data available on this matter. However, it is likely that Turkey has had an influence on HTS’s stance toward TIP.
This situation holds potential implications for China-Turkey relations as well. Until 2013, the ruling AKP government in Turkey strongly criticized China over the Uyghur issue. However, as Turkey’s relations with the West soured and its economy weakened, Ankara began to align more with Beijing.
Turkey has increasingly sidelined the Uyghur issue, even suppressing internal protests related to it. The government, due to its small Uyghur minority, did not support Syrian insurgents on the grounds of the Uyghur cause, and it seems likely that Turkey will continue to overlook the Uyghur issue in order to maintain its economic ties with China on the international stage.
Turkey’s desire to position itself as a supply chain hub between China and Europe is contingent on regional stability and maintaining strong relations with China.
For these reasons, Turkey will likely avoid openly condemning China over the Uyghur issue and will not adopt a hard stance against Beijing. However, the exact calculations of the AKP government regarding TIP remain unclear, particularly in light of its broader strategic considerations.
Furthermore, it is expected that China will apply diplomatic pressure on Turkey regarding TIP in an attempt to ensure that Turkey does not support TIP’s operations.
İhsan Umun is a Paris-based liberal Uyghur commentator and founder of Dialogue in Uyghur Language. In 2018, he graduated from Akdeniz University with a degree in sociology. He worked as a freelance reporter for Radio Free Asia until 2022. and is also a regular opinion writer and contributor to Uyghur Times.
