The views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of Uyghur Times.
By Ishan ismail
This political and economic clash between America and China probably surprised no one. Because the clash between two different political systems and the goal of two great powers to become the main architect of the international political order is the most fundamental reason for the conflict.
How will this conflict be resolved? Through peace negotiations? Or through war?
The decisive answer to how the Uyghur issue will be resolved lies beneath this question.
The international political system in the 21st century does not operate purely on Machiavellian realpolitik. But this does not mean that international politics is shaped on the basis of modern values such as human rights and democracy. Although we are living in the most glorious era of human rights and democracy in history, the main factor determining international politics is still realpolitik. Given the development of the current situation, this reality does not seem likely to change easily in this century we are living in.
Russia felt in the Ukraine war that it was not an international power, but a regional power. Western economic embargoes, changes in demographic structure, labor issues and the ongoing war may further weaken Russia in the future, making it more dependent on China.
Looking at the situation going forward, the leader of the opposition bloc to American-led international politics is China, not Russia.
However, economic weakening in China, the withdrawal of Western capital, rigidity in financial policy and population aging seem to have brought China down a bit. Although it reduced the economic gap with America in the previous 20 years, according to new economic data, the economic gap between China and America will start to widen again from this year.
Regarding the Uyghur issue, Uyghurs generally view the Uyghur region as a colony of China. China and Russia have already colonized some regions inhabited by Turkic peoples and had this accepted by the post-World War II international political system.
Regardless of the results of research by academics or independent researchers in this regard, the view that the Uyghur region is part of China is part of the post-World War II political system. This issue is not part of an academic debate or a debate about some kind of correctness or justice.
For this doctrine regarding the Uyghur region being part of China to be overturned, the international political order must be re-established, or China itself must be willing to academically or fairly address this political doctrine.
The Uyghur issue depends on two conditions in my opinion:
- China’s rejection of its current national policy doctrine.
One of the important principles jointly agreed upon by existing countries through international organizations is the issue of territorial integrity. China’s territorial integrity issue is protected by the existing international political order and international political powers. Trying to resolve an issue related to China’s territorial integrity against China’s wishes would drag any country interfering in this issue into a war with China.
In summary, to reject China’s current doctrine regarding territorial integrity against China’s wishes, the international political order needs to be re-established.
- Revising this doctrine fairly and scientifically together with China.
For a country with no history of democratic systems and an authoritarian regime to fairly and scientifically resolve its internal issues through democratic means is not really possible in the current reality. Because China’s political system and political structure do not allow it. For this issue to be resolved in the same way as countries that gained independence in the West or Central Asia, democratization of the Chinese government is necessary.
When we look at the Palestine issue, the Ukraine issue, and even the Taiwan issue, we can see that there is generally a high desire in the West to protect the existing world order. In this era where any war drags the world into the shadow of nuclear bomb fear, it is not surprising that countries tend to avoid war as much as possible.
The West’s efforts to stay away from war as much as possible for Ukraine, which is considered the gateway to Europe’s security, and the West’s lack of a clear position on defending Taiwan, which has a very important strategic position, should make us think. Moreover, the fact that the Palestine issue, which has a nearly century-long lobbying history, has not been resolved despite its international reputation is even more thought-provoking. The world was unable to do anything to temper a tiny country like Israel. It is clear to me that no country will militarily intervene or that international lobbying movements will not play a decisive role in resolving an ethnic issue that is considered an internal matter by China, this great power.
In the end, we are left with two possibilities. The first is a war between China and the West and the new world order established after the war. The second is reconciliation with the Chinese government.
- The possibility of war
A hot war that breaks out in Taiwan or the South China Sea, or a large-scale war between America and China under this pretext. This will redefine China’s role and position in the new world. Under these circumstances, Uyghurs, Tibetans and Hong Kongers may have the opportunity to gain a relevant position in the newly established world order.
China is a nuclear power. Therefore, the fear that a hot war will go beyond conventional military conflict and turn into a nuclear war compels both Western countries and China to take a cautious political position.
Nevertheless, we cannot absolutely rule out the possibility of such a war occurring in the future.
In any case, we need to know what a large-scale war means for the lives and existence of Uyghurs in our homeland. The impact of a potential war on Uyghurs should be analyzed.
It is impossible for Western countries to take military action against China for human rights issues in Xinjiang or Tibet. Dismantling a nuclear state is a fantasy without a major economic and social crisis. Therefore, only military conflict with the West (changing China through external force) can achieve the goal.
- Reconciliation with China.
The Uyghur genocide and state assimilation against Uyghurs is the greatest threat to the existence of the Uyghur nation in history. With the internationalization of the Uyghur issue, the need to resolve this issue has increased even more. If this issue is resolved in the next half century or in the next 2-3 generations, fine, otherwise a situation may develop where nothing definitive can be said about the existence of a nation called Uyghur.
In this situation of racing against time, unless a major war breaks out between the West and China, some steps may have to be taken for reconciliation and agreement between the Chinese government and Uyghurs.
There may be those who argue that reconciliation with China is impossible, or who give speeches about the evil and wickedness of the Chinese or Chinese government. But in order to protect our own existence, we must not rule out some possibilities to form a common path, regardless of what the other side is like.
If communication with Uyghurs in the homeland is not smooth, if the necessary national work is not done to preserve Uyghur identity in the homeland, it is impossible for new generations to carry on the Uyghur cause and guarantee national existence. Even how long Uyghurs abroad can maintain their existence is a big question. Most of the children of even the most famous Uyghur politicians do not know Uyghur. I have zero confidence that the grandchildren of those who accuse everyone around them of autonomy under the slogan of independence can form sentences in Uyghur. Although their grand ideas may look beautiful to the eyes, it is the Uyghurs in the homeland who suffer for this. Those abroad crack the kernel of their suffering.
Uyghurs need to keep two things firmly in mind: 1. Without Uyghurs, there will be no East Turkestan or Uyghur cause. So the first goal is to preserve the Uyghur nation. 2. No country will enter into military conflict with China for Uyghurs. So we need to consider other opportunities and ways as well. There is no point in watching the Uyghur nation disappear for the sake of the political aspirations of Uyghurs abroad.
If there is to be a reconciliation with China, its basic schema would be through two concessions. These two concessions are formed around two renunciations:
- Uyghurs giving up independence.
Giving up the political will for independence, accepting China’s rule and thus giving China legal external governing rights. This way, China will have resolved the Uyghur issue.
- China giving up its will to assimilate Uyghurs.
By giving up the will for independence, Uyghurs may obtain legal and real policies from China that fully guarantee their national existence. This way, Uyghurs may gain the right to protect and continue their language, culture, and religious customs.
To obtain this right, a series of reforms need to be demanded from China.
These include reviving Uyghur-language education from kindergarten to university, freedom of information and election of the region’s legal representative by locals, immediately stopping the state’s policies to change the demographic structure, granting religious freedom within the legal framework, implementing effective political reforms to reduce economic inequality, ceasing to obstruct cultural and academic cooperation with Central Asian and Turkish Turks, etc.
As long as the nation preserves its existence, states and governments come and go throughout history. So as long as we do not lose the nation, we will have the possibility of revival in the future.
However, there are a few issues that need to be considered for reconciliation and peace with China.
The first of these is whether China wants to reconcile with Uyghurs or not.
How likely is it to hold talks with Uyghurs when there is the option of completely eliminating a nation called Uyghur and permanently resolving the security issue once and for all? This is not very clear. Given China’s policy of not acknowledging the existence of the problem, coming to the negotiating table with Uyghurs would mean accepting the existence of the problem for China.
Especially in today’s situation where China has become increasingly radical militarily and politically and radical nationalism has reached its peak, it does not seem very likely that China will come to the negotiating table with Uyghurs. International pressure is needed to push for this. International lobbying activities on the Uyghur issue need to be strengthened.
Along with this, it is extremely important to establish organizations and media that directly address the Chinese and aim to directly convey the situation of Uyghurs to the Chinese. Only when public opinion intensifies inside and outside China might China then consider this reconciliation issue.
Another issue is that this directly relates to the Communist Party’s state structure and form of governance. Even if such a reconciliation is achieved, there needs to be an international format or political body that will inspect this, take on the role of control and management for the fair implementation of this political process. For the accuracy and effectiveness of this inspection work, freedom of information and freedom of speech must be fully guaranteed, and the existing state censorship system must be completely reformed.
This means that the Chinese state must democratize and change fundamentally in terms of structure and politics.
Therefore, we may not have the possibility of reconciliation with the current government, which is one of the most radical governments in Chinese history. So the character of post-Xi Jinping governments, their inclination towards political reform, and the state of change in the political structure may be extremely important for the fate of Uyghurs. The intensification of the conflict between America and China may also play a catalytic role in the process of political change and democratization in China.
The process of change in China’s future internal politics and the conflict between China and the West may play a critical role in resolving the Uyghur issue.
The Uyghur-language version of the article was published on the Uyghur edition of Uyghur Times.
The author is a Paris-based liberal Uyghur commentator and founder of Dialogue in Uyghur Language. In 2018, he graduated from Akdeniz University with a degree in sociology. He worked as a freelance reporter for Radio Free Asia until 2022. and is also a regular opinion writer and contributor to Uyghur Times.
